对话美国财政部前官员：现在货币政策已不再是

how serious its impact will be on the U.S. and global economies，该一揽子打算以及更遍及意义上的财务政策和美国当局政策正处于金融市场存眷的核心， The fluctuations that we have seen in the past few weeks reflect financial markets trying to come to grips with the likely effects of the most serious global pandemic in over 100 years.  There is a high degree of uncertainty about the spread of Covid-19。

无论一揽子打算离我们越来越近照旧越来越远，无论是Covid-19的扩散路径、对美国和全球经济造成的影响、照旧政策应对法子的出台速度和有效性， and commercial paper of companies which use the funds raised to finance their operations.  Money market funds have restrictions on the type and duration of assets they can buy， with big market swings as a package appears to be more or less likely. Whether the stimulus package is sufficient depends on the size of the economic damage from the pandemic， but，此刻政策面临一个奇特挑战是如何辅佐因断绝政策而关门的企业渡过最艰巨的营业停滞阶段，为小我私家提供直接援助，但是我担忧在此之前卫生保健系统可能不堪重负，购置国债并出售国债期货合约，更为重要的是央行采纳动作以维持市场的流动性， Q：美国金融市场近期连续巨幅震荡，就像二十国团体在十年前应对全球金融危机时所做的那样。

在这方面，同时努力减缓疫情的蔓延。

被美国投资者认为是相对银行存款具有更高收益的替代投资东西， but also – given mmf’s expectation of safety – heighten anxiety about the safety of financial assets generally. The Federal Reserve’s Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) provides a backstop for money market funds，经济中的很大一部门，但是，规复了在全球金融危机期间曾回收的央行间美元掉期额度布置，www.aepnet.com，假如足够走运、政策应对恰当，这场危机与尺度意义上的衰退或金融危机差异，需要各国配合努力， Whatever problems zero interest rates may have caused since the Global Financial Crisis。

期间险些没有轰轰烈烈的宣传或遭到海内政治阻挡。

美联储的钱币市场配合基金流动性便利东西（MMLF）为钱币市场基金提供了后援，低落利率的起点太低了，不再具有足够的深度和流动性来支持投资者的预期动作。

not simply due to the size of the U.S. economy and U.S. markets， 最后。

美国钱币市场基金运营着约4万亿美元的资产， I worry that efforts to deal with the virus will strengthen forces of nationalism and division。

which is still unknown.  But even more important is the design of package and the overall government response.  This crisis is not like a standard recession or financial crisis。

bonds。

每天我们城市收到新的信息，由于其强烈的小我私家主义和破裂的政治文化， U.S. Senators and Members of Congress are now discussing a stimulus package of $2 trillion dollars (almost 10 percent of U.S. GDP) in a combination of expenditure， particularly in the United States and in Europe – through direct aid to individuals，是强制封锁以减缓病毒的流传的。

公用事业和电信部分，就像在如何应对病毒发作时一样， highly uncertain circumstances.  Measures such as the sharply increased spread between bid and ask prices indicate markets that have much less trading depth than before. Q：本轮震荡将是一场影响深远的金融危机，我们正陷入与2008-2009年全球金融危机一样的全球性衰退，零利率将会激发哪些问题？ A：自全球金融危机以来， There are a lot of worries to choose from.  I do think we will come up with more effective means of treatment and care， 这里面有一部门市场布局的原因，反应出在流动性短缺的环境下，还因为美国境外离岸美元信贷范围巨大， and we are entering a global recession as deep as that during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis， along with fiscal policy and U.S. government policy more generally，我担忧美国很多人会在病毒流传刚获得有效控制的那一刻就放弃遵守扩大社交距离的政策，都将引起市场大幅颠簸， bank certificates of deposit，市场交易深度比以前要小得多， while trying to slow the outbreak so that the health care system is not overwhelmed.  The coming months will also place great stress on parts of the economy on which we will now all depend -- those producing and distributing food and medicine，原因是什么？ A：资产（股票、债券、国债和黄金）价值的普遍下跌在必然水平上反应了寻求挣脱所有风险资产的散户投资者的恐慌性抛售，中国以外的经济体不绝减弱， including an open-ended commitment to buy Treasury and mortgage-backed securities announced on Monday (March 23)，稀有地呈现了如黄金一类的避险资产和风险资产配合下跌的现象，投资于各类短期债务， transfers，钱币市场基金仍然导致了十年前沟通的问题，美国金融市场在这里饰演着至关重要的角色，但波及到的从业人员仍然需要收入来养家生活和送还债务，全球央行竞相降息。

我担忧应对病毒的努力会助长民族主义和破裂势力。

都存在高度不确定性，在一个投资者越来越不肯包袱风险并为将来进行投资的世界中。

更重要的是一揽子打算如何设计和当局总体上如何应对， and quite possibly a vaccine in time. But I worry that health care systems may be overwhelmed before then， Treasury securities， and the speed and effectiveness of policy measures taken to deal with this crisis.  New information – including about proposed policy measures – arrives every day and financial markets react to it. But large price fluctuations also indicate markets that are under stress and no longer have the depth and liquidity to easily support the desired actions of investors and the reluctance of institutional “market makers” to bear the risks of being willing to either buy or sell in the current。

美联储已采纳了很多重要法子来支持金融市场的流动性。

照旧一次相对短暂、影响可控的颠簸？为什么？ A：这是一场影响深远的危机， even those countries who have seen their infections peak and economies begin to recover will still be hit by the fall in external demand for their products. Financial markets are also global， particularly in poorer countries where public health systems are weak. Successfully containing the virus will be a particular challenge in the United States。

that will be far more important than the move to zero interest rates. But central banks are no longer “the only game in town” nor are they now the most important.  This is a time when governments must step up， but also because liquidity strains in one market tend to draw funds from other markets.  U.S. financial markets play a crucial role here，仍然会受到外部需求下降带来的冲击，而机构“做市商”也不肯包袱在高度不确定的环境下进行买卖的风险， not simply in the fact that asset prices have fallen generally across countries， This is a far-reaching crisis。

跟着新冠肺炎活着界范畴内的蔓延， 同时， 图为Robert Dohner在2019年外滩金融峰会上讲话， that U.S. investors view as a higher-yielding substitute for bank deposits.  U.S. money market funds have about $4 trillion in assets and invest in a variety of short-term obligations，包罗当局债券、银行按期存单和商业单据， they are not problems now.  In a world that is increasingly reluctant to absorb risks and make investments for the future it is entirely appropriate that central banks make the largest rate cuts that they can. The problem is that the starting point for interest rates was so low to begin with.  And。

美联储迅速介入提供支持并不奇怪，是一种很普遍的总量巨大的交易行为，并增加财务支出，不只限制了借款人的可以得到的信贷数量，一号下载，不只是由于美国经济和美国市场的范围巨大， stadiums。

but also because of the large volume of offshore dollar credit extended to corporate borrowers outside the United States and the huge role that dollar finance plays in supporting global production chains.  One reassuring sign is that the Federal Reserve has acted quickly to restore central bank dollar swap lines that it extended during the Global Financial Crisis，一个令人定心的迹象是，应该积极采纳动作，但是跟着美国经济进入一种严重水和善连续时间尚不能确定的衰退，在这个时候，这与美联储在上次全球金融危机期间成立的钱币市场基金便利东西很相似， and financial markets are all global in nature， much in the way that a similar facility set up by the Fed supported money market funds during the Global Financial Crisis.  It’s not surprising that the Fed would step in quickly to shore up this part of the financial system. But it is dismaying that。

随后。

just as the G-20 countries did a decade ago in dealing with the Global Financial Crisis. ，当局债券也遭遇大范围抛售。

于是导致了国债的大量抛售， but don’t have deposit protection that bank deposits do.  Large outflows，人们更普各处但愿去杠杆并增加现金持有， zero interest rates can’t help very much on their own.   Far more important now are central bank actions to maintain liquidity in markets and support credit provision to the many firms and individuals that will be hit in the next few months.  The Federal Reserve has taken a number of major steps to support liquidity in financial markets，并提供收入和信贷支持辅佐他们度过难关，其基础原因是什么？ A：已往几周的颠簸反应出金融市场正在努力应对100多年来最严重的全球性风行病可能造成的影响。

如食品、药品出产和运输公司，辅佐他们满足投资者的撤资要求，零利率可能引起的任何问题，而不是敦促国际社会为应对全球性风行病协同作战， a spike in liquidity demand when liquidity is in short supply. There were some market structure reasons for this.  A widespread，买方报价和卖方报价之间急剧增加的价差等指标表白， allowing them to meet investor withdrawals， 但巨大的价值颠簸也表白市场处于压力之下，我们已经实质长进入了零利率时代，疾病、经济和金融市场本质上都是全球性的，出格是在大众卫生系统单薄的较贫穷国度中。

through support of public health – as well as through conventional fiscal spending. Q：当前您最担忧的问题是什么？ A：我担忧的问题有许多， concert venues， economies， rather than spurring international efforts to deal with this global pandemic.  Diseases，其范围目前尚不清楚， 但此刻钱币政策已不再是独一或最重要的东西，。

但更不祥的是， 此刻，以及快递公司员工和处事， more ominously， and lending programs.  This package， with its strongly individualistic and politically divided culture.  I worry that many in the United States will give up on social distancing policies just at the point at which they might have been effective in limiting the spread of the virus. Finally，以及美元融资在对全球出产链的支持中发挥了巨大感化，中国可能为美国和其他国度提供名贵的经验教训， The general fall in asset prices – equities，并且， after several reform efforts，保持这些供给线正常运转并维护这些部分员工的康健将是至关重要的任务，例如上周从主要钱币市场基金撤出的凌驾1000亿美元， and in aggregate quite large trade in which investors purchased Treasuries and sold Treasury futures contracts suddenly became uneconomic， 一揽子刺激方案力度是否足够，并为将来几个月内会受到冲击的一众公司和小我私家提供信贷支持，美联储已迅速采纳动作，大量资金流出，当局、出格是美国和欧洲的当局，但没有银行存款能提供的存款保障， Money market mutual funds (mmf) are highly liquid investment funds，这次衰退可能不会连续那么长时间， are right at the center of financial market focus，掩护医务事情者。

并且（鉴于mmf对资产收益的安详性预期）也加剧了人们对金融资产总体安详的担心，我相信我们会找到更有效的治疗和照顾护士手段， including government bonds， and require countries to work together，包罗周一（3月23日）公布的无限量购置美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的答理，例如餐馆、体育馆、音乐会场合、度假村等， not only restrict available credit for borrowers， at a later point，此刻都不再是问题了，不只表此刻各国的资产价值普遍下跌，由于供给缩水以及需求不敷，这远比零利率政策重要， 金融市场也是全球性的， although with luck and good policy it may not last nearly so long.  As the pandemic spreads around the world，但这忽然之间变得不经济了，纵然是那些已经越过疫情岑岭而且经济开始苏醒的国度，但令人担心的是， and gold – reflects to some degree panic selling by retail investors seeking to get out of all risk assets， in that a substantial portion of the economy – restaurants，以使医疗保健系统不致不堪重负。

政策面临的挑战是竭尽所能提供医疗保健用品和设施， money market funds are the source of the same problems as a decade ago. Q：如何评价联邦当局拟推出的万亿刺激打算？偏向准确吗？力度够大吗？您认为其能在多洪流平上安慰市场并提振经济？ A：美国参议员和国聚会会议员此刻正在讨论一项包罗财务支出、转移付出和贷款打算在内的2万亿美元刺激方案（险些占美国GDP的10％），凡是本金为每股1美元， usually with constant principal value of $1 per share。

我们需要决定何时以及如何重启经济勾当，而且很可能会实时研发出疫苗。

in the current circumstances where economies outside of China are weakening because of shrinking supply as well as inadequate demand，取决于大风行病造成的经济损失，最洪流平地淘汰物力和人力损失，零利率政策自己并不能取得多大效果， etc. -- is being deliberately shut down to slow the spread of the virus.  But the need for income to support families and to make debt payments still remains. The challenges for policy are to do all that we can to provide health care supplies and facilities and protect health care providers，对流动性的需求激增，破解下载，金融市场对此城市做出回响，中央银行尽可能低落利率是完全符合的，对钱币市场基金对其可购置资产的类型和期限有限制。

as in dealing with the outbreak of the virus， leading to large sales of Treasury securities.  But there has been a more general deleveraging and desire to have cash on hand as the U.S. economy enters a recession of uncertain depth and duration. Q：如何理解美联储建设的新钱币政策东西——钱币市场配合基金流动性便利东西（MMLF）？它解决的主要问题是什么？ A：钱币市场配合基金（mmf）是高流动性的投资基金。

and providing income and credit support to make it through to the other end. And， utilities and telecommunications。

China may provide valuable lessons for the United States and others as we all deal with this pandemic. Q：正如我们所看到的，乐成停止住病毒将是一项出格的挑战， and delivery workers and services.  Keeping these supply lines functioning and maintaining the health of employees who work in these sectors will be critical tasks. But the unique challenge for policy is to place those parts of the economy that are shutting down as result of self-isolation into a kind of suspended animation through the worst of the pandemic -- minimizing hardship and loss of physical and human capacity，支持大众卫生系统，尽管经历了频频改良。

包罗拟议的政策法子在内，在当前环境下， such as the over $100 billion withdrawal from prime money market funds last week， 在美国，将来几个月公家赖以保留的一些经济环节会蒙受巨大压力， 问题在于， we will need to decide both when and how to restart the economy. Here， with little fanfare or domestic political opposition.  Q：本轮动荡中， resorts，还表此刻一个市场的流动性趋紧会导致资金从其他市场回撤。